Wednesday, November 6, 2013

防御之星

投资组合里仅有的一颗防御性强的股,IHH 跑赢了全部投行的目标价, 继而促使大家都给它守住和卖出评级。而EPF却一直收票当中,EPF收票的原因小股东不会懂,但是此举确实大大加分,至少它是一支值得拥有的股 (EPF应该不会收烂股吧?)

AMMB今天发表了一篇Company visit 报告:

- We maintain our HOLD on IHH Healthcare Bhd, with an unchanged fair value of RM3.80/share, based on a sum-of-parts valuation.

以目前的估值,它是贵了,但是如果以把眼光看长远些,也许几年后看回来你会说现在的价钱很便宜,所以现在贵不贵完全取决于你对它的将来有什么样的看法。目前投行给予守住评级是可以理解的。

- Our meeting with management reaffirms our belief that operations at new hospitals, besides its expansion plan, are coming along nicely. IHH’s medium- to long-term catalysts are solid, underpinned by growing bed capacity expansion in Malaysia (+38% beds) and Turkey (+29% beds) that will drive growth for the next few years.

IHH还在积极扩展当中,在马来西亚有3家新医院正在兴建当中,3家扩建当中,而且开始进军东马市场。除了马来西亚,它也在土耳其,中国,印度,香港,越南,中东地区积极扩展版图。公司的中长期表现大受看好。







- Turkey remains as the group’s biggest growth potential given the fairly fragmented healthcare industry. Following the recent breakeven at the EBITDA level for Mount Elizabeth Novena and Acibadem Ankara, IHH is looking forward to achieving the same for Acibadem Bodrum by this year.

- Mount Elizabeth Novena is paving the way for better operational efficiency, underpinned by the present bed utilisation of >50% – operating 120 beds out of the 180 licensed-beds. A gradual rampup of bed capacity (remaining 150 beds) is expected in FY14F upon hitting 70%-75% utilisation and this should further catalyse the stock.

- A key concern for Singapore is the sensitivity towards the Rupiah. Should the Singapore dollar appreciate further against the Rupiah, a potential softening in revenue from Indonesian patients (who constitute 50% of foreign medical patients) could happen, given the availability of cheaper alternatives elsewhere. This could be partly mitigated by the growing domestic pool.

新币兑印尼盾升值对新加坡的业务产生直接的影响,新币升值,医疗费贵了,病人自然会选择其他比较低廉的医疗。

- Interestingly, the upcoming hospital management and consultancy agreement with the Shanghai International Medical Zone (which is expected to open in 2014) will be a test case for IHH. The hospital will be run on a similar basis as the private healthcare in IHH’s key markets – housing specialist doctors (as opposed to the typical healthcare system in China of just general practitioners).

- Another catalyst would be the greenfield hospital in Hong Kong (expected to be operational in 2017), given a c.25% higher healthcare cost than Singapore. More importantly, IHH could leverage on Hong Kong to penetrate the China market.

中国和香港庞大的人口应该会是个非常大的市场,长远展望非常正面。

- Relative to peers, IHH’s valuations on an EV/EBITDA basis is higher than the average of 20x for FY13F and 13x for FY14F, based on Bloomberg consensus. Similarly, on a PER basis, we find that IHH’s 48x PE for FY14F is above average (>100% premium).

- We like the stock’s defensive qualities and medium- to long- term earnings growth prospects. However, we believe a lot of the positives are already reflected in the share price. Given the limited upside to our fair value and steep valuations, we reiterate our HOLD on the stock.

医疗保健永远是个抗跌性强的股,人类对医疗保健的需求没有淡季和旺季之分,世界人口增长和老化大大增加对医疗的需求,中长期的赚幅展望备受看好。

*此股目前本益比偏高,EPS偏低,没发过股息,唯一看好的是它的业务和防御性质。主要业务在土耳其,其他市场有新加坡,马来西亚。 新市场有越南,中东,印度,中国和香港。

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