Friday, September 28, 2018

【MAGNI 第21届股东大会】乔治市,槟城

去年来不成,今年一定要来。谁知道明年就没这机会了呢?😜

出席人数并不多,大概算了有50多个人。

有早餐自助餐喂饱股东,食物是不错。

可惜他们并没有安排Q&A session,所以只好在场外博取机会向MD Tan Poay Seng发问。

1)什么原因造成营业额出现下滑?
外汇波动(美元走弱)等等因素都会造成营业额下滑(订单减少)。

2)接下来的营业额是否会有起色?
MD说他们会努力!

3)对于依赖单一主要客户是否是个巨大风险?
这个风险我们已经谈了30年 (现场一片哄堂😆)MD说他们注重品质和良好的客户关系,他们已经与Nike合作了几十年,他们要求什么我们很了解。他们也有和Lacoste 合作,但是量不大。

4)在越南的两座新厂将会提升产能

5)NIKE 向来都录得成长,甚至是双位数增长,但是这没有反映在MAGNI 的业绩里,尤其是最近几个季度。这是不是因为来自NIKE的订单减少?
我们不能这样做对比(原来我错了?🤔)





Wednesday, September 26, 2018

NIKE持续增长,MAGNI呢?




最近几个季度的性情不稳,业绩时好时差。前两个季度也经历过业绩炸弹,上个季度稍微好转,但是营业额稍微萎缩。真让人捉摸不到。

扩展产能中将会设立两座新厂,第一座新厂已经在今年3月营运,目前还未出现任何突破性贡献。第二座新厂正在兴建当中,预计2019年中完成。至于营业额无法增长是不是产能已经顶峰了呢还是订单减少呢?
季报中有提到订单减少,如果订单减少,将来两座新厂完全投入生产后是否会出现产能过剩的隐忧?

这些问题只好丢回管理层。




NIKE在昨天出炉的2019年第一季度(截至8月31日)报告录得双位数增长。APPAREL在全球都录得双位数的增长(除了北美洲 8%),至于这是否将会反映在MAGNI未来的表现就有待观察,毕竟前几个季度的表现有脱轨的现象。

虽然目前手上的股份属于免费股,但是如果看不到它的持续性成长,是否可以考虑清空?

本金都已经拿回来了,留着免费股每年领股息不好吗?

MAGNI每年的派息率都有至少30%以上 (2018-35.6%, 2017-31.2%, 2016-35.7)。假设EPS每年都保持在50仙以上,每年的股息大约是20仙左右。当然如果少赚的话股息也是会下调。

心里有好多疑问,希望这次有机会从管理层的口中得到理想并诚实的答复,然后再考虑下一步怎么走。

“老狐狸“又出现在2018年报中的30大股东名单中。。。

Sunday, September 23, 2018

SCGM第11届股东大会 (古来)


这是投资生涯8年以来第二次出席股东大会,第一场是今年4月底的NESTLE 股东大会。

从古晋飞往新山的航班一天只有两半(早晚一班),早上9点抵达士乃国际机场,到了机场有点迷茫,说实在这趟“旅程”什么功课/准备都没做,到了机场才忙着google找找看哪里可以去,可以吃些什么。为了先医好肚子,先买一条subway塞肚子,一边塞,一边找着下一站。

最后决定到Johor Premium Outlet (JPO)看看,在机场大厅瞄到有免费接驳巴士到JPO,原本打算乘搭GRAB前往 。


包了一辆巴士前往JPO,整辆巴士只有我一位乘客,司机很无奈无论如何都得开车。我也不想的,我也很惭愧!


大约10点到了JPO,也许是还早的关系,也有可能是工作日的关系,非常冷清。稍后会看到零星的“旅客”,目测都是外国游客

JOHOR PREMIUM OUTLET与GENTING PREMIUM OUTLET一样是 GENTING PLANTATION BERHAD旗下的业务之一




在这里待了有一个小时,包括有花了一些时间找着下一站

找到一家 GC  GOOD COFFEE,点了GRAB就走了。

有GRAB真的去哪都超级方便。

有位股友私讯,说他也会上古来出席AGM,我们可以约吃个午餐然后一同前往AGM。

(哇!真大胆竟敢上陌生人的车子?!)

我又不是美女,怕什么? 嘿嘿🤭

虽然大家都没见过面,也没聊过,但是借由股票投资把我们给联系了起来,这种感觉挺妙的!

他带我去了一家面馆,无意中让我回味下云吞面和炸云吞的味道(那味道与雪隆的云吞面味道一样),很棒!

终于来到了SCGM位于古来的新厂房。








现场总共有大约七八十为股东兼代表出席,也看到许多年轻的面孔。管理层说这是前所未有的出席人数。

会场以播放新厂从地基到完成的影片作为开场,然后讲解公司在2018财政年的表现和2019财政年的展望,投票,茶点,问答环节,最后参观新厂。


问答环节

1)政府在环保课题上所拟定的条规以及社会对环保意识的加强对公司的产品有影响吗?
对于政府对这方面的条规/立法目前尚未明确,不过公司的产品都是符合环保要求(21天内腐化),也获取SIRIM认证。

2)公司的现金流一直处于负数,管理层如何应对?
公司会致力提高营业额来提高公司的现金流。

3)公司会否在将来展开企业活动corporate exercise ?
有可能,比如private placement,如果有任何机构投资者不排除会执行。

4)公司的40% dividend payout policy是否维持?
李主席非常肯定将维持,而且会更好。

5)公司的产品在市场上的竞争力如何?公司如何确保产品在市场上具备竞争优势?
主席说SCGM是市场上的领头羊(leader)。我们不只是说说而已,我们都是有精心规划,并致力做到最好。我们的产品设计都处于自家,并申请了设计产权,我们的产品有绝对优势。

6) 产品原料 RESIN是否以美元采购?公司有没有做对冲?
原料是locally sourced, 所以是以马币采购


以下是股灵精探发问的问题:

7) 公司提高产品售价是否会影响销量?
我们在近期的6月份又提高了产品售价,这个effect会在8月和9月显现出来。Resin价格一直以来都呈上升趋势,目前已趋稳。在即将公布的第一季业绩将会看到new figure。(第一季录得新高营业额)

8)谁是SCGM在马来西亚市场上的主要竞争对手?
论饭盒(lunch box),有好多家,比如TOLI, ACE, Chunbe 等

9)搬迁机械从旧厂到新厂是否严重影响production?
机械是逐步搬迁,不是一次过搬,所以需要耗时几个月(12月全面投产)。我们将确保production & revenue 不会受到影响。
参观新厂房的时候看到有10台机械,8台在运作中。产品的运输设备还未正式启用。整件工厂将采用工业4.0理念,全面机械化,人力运用方面大大减少,观察后的确发现一整大台的生产机械基本上只需要一个人来运作,主要在包装/打包成品进箱子然后出货。

10)公司有安排接班人吗?
李主席说如果没做好“富不过三代”。如何富能过三代?我们得给予下一代最好的教育。世界在改变,科技日新月异。以前的阿公阿嬷时代,小学六年级毕业就可以当公司主席,现在这个时代已经行不通了。我有3个孩子都在公司管理层,4兄弟中另一个兄弟的两个孩子也在公司的营运管理层中。我们将会引进更多专业人士来营运公司。下一次的股东大会也许会看到更多专业人士在公司里。

这次股东大会其中一项值得期待的活动就是参观新厂房。由于禁止携带手机进入厂房所以无法拍摄任何照片。

新厂房很大,目前还很空。整个生产过程都以自动化机械操作,从原料->热成型->包装->上车都以输送带输送,之前在旧厂都主要以人力操作。厂房的建筑结构主要以IBS (INDUSTRIALIZED BUILDING SYSTEM) 组成,所以这是为什么它能在短时间内完成,厂房采用天然采光,白天基本上无需开灯作业。新厂范围内有员工食堂和员工宿舍,之前需要提供巴士载送员工每天来回宿舍和厂房。

基本上,这些就是当天的重点摘要。新工厂很大,目前还有许多空间来容纳生产机械,整个工业4.0的科技,配合全自动化的输送带系统,相信将来在成本控制和效率方面会大大提升。



Tuesday, June 19, 2018

SCGM 未来如何?

SCGM (7247),国内其中一家有规模的塑料包装生产商(食品,电子,医疗),业务包括国内和出口到国外。国内营业额占总营业额超过60%,这个比例一直在增长当中,可见国内的需求保持强劲,也代表公司在努力扩张国内市场的份额。



在马来西亚,塑料包装生产商不胜枚举,上市和没上市的都有。要在国内的激烈市场中竞争,还得在价格和产品素质方面多下点功夫。

2017财政年股息派发率低于50%,过去3年派发率都高于60%。这也许是公司需要把钱用在扩充厂房方面。

对比2017年报,截至2018财政年第三季,公司现金减少,借贷增加。目前不属于净现金公司。

2014年开始投资SCGM,当时的本益比只有8,股息率有5%。



公司在2017年开始投入大笔资本开销 (CAPEX) 以扩充生产线,花54 million兴建新厂房,把生产量从每年36 million kg 增长至每年62.6 million kg,提高74%。公司上一次扩张生产线是在2009年,把当时的厂房面积从40,000 sq feet 扩张到170,000 sq feet,公司的营业额随后5年大幅度增长。由此可见,接下来5年的业绩非常可期。





新厂房已经在4月底获得入伙准证




由于产能几近饱和,业绩在没有强劲动力的增长下,SCGM 股价从去年3块多高峰后开始往下近60%,历时半年之久,一直到今年4月才回稳。随后在4中和5月中有明显的拉升(价量齐升)后横摆,昨天开始又有一股明显的拉升,亦然是价量齐升的情况。

接下来几个季度的业绩只要无出现严重下跌的情况,相信股价下跌的空间应该不大。至于业绩会不会有惊喜,也就是大幅回升,机会应该不大,毕竟新的生产线还未贡献业绩。当然原料价格回升和人力资源开销上涨等等也是值得关注的元素。



卓越的公司需要卓越的管理层掌托,李氏四兄弟绝对是卓越的公司掌门人

Saturday, June 16, 2018

存股+耐心=?



投资需要耐心,这是不争的事实,也有许多案例足以证明。当然前提是你得投对股,选对的公司产业。

这里就以MAGNI(俗称美女)来做参考。假设你在2013年以RM2292买了1000股的美女,这5年来没有手痒,一股都没卖,牢牢锁在保险箱里。如今你手上美女的价值是多少?

以上的table足以一目了然,这5年来领了84仙的股息,分了一次红股。因为分过红股,手上的股数也从1000股变成1500股。如今你手上的美女每股本钱是78仙((当初透入的资金 - 股息总额)/总股数)

以目前每股5.47计算,你目前1500股的美女价值RM8205,对比当初投入的本金和所领取的股息总数,5年来这笔投资的净回酬是600%。

这就是存股和耐心的威力。

Thursday, June 14, 2018

MAGNI的“精髓”所在- SIP


South Island Garment Sdn Bhd (SIP), a 100% wholly-owned subsidiary of MAGNI.

SIP与NIKE已经合作了33年!(1985-2018)

【Dependence on major customer】
SIG’s current business is largely dependent on the sale of woven sportswear to Nike, Inc. (“Nike”). Sales to Nike accounted for approximately 75% of SIG’s revenue for the financial year ended 30 April 2005. 

SIG has enjoyed a cordial relationship with Nike for the past 20 years since 1985. Being a supplier of Nike apparels, SIG is required to adhere to a strict set of compliance rules known as the “Nike Code of Conduct”. Due to SIG’s emphasis on quality control and successful business ties with Nike, Nike has appointed SIG as one of the tier-1 woven manufacturers of Nike apparels worldwide. To be a Nike tier-1 manufacturer, SIG must maintain a high and consistent performance in its on-time delivery and quality of its apparels. The privilege of being a Nike’s tier-1 manufacturer is that Nike is committed to prioritising the production capacity offered by its tier-1 manufacturers. Although SIG continuously strives to improve its quality assurance, delivery and customer service, there can be no assurance that SIG will continue to have a cordial business relationship with Nike, and that Nike would not remove SIG as a tier-1 woven manufacturer of Nike products. Nike, being a global company, has the flexibility in sourcing for other manufacturers worldwide and is not dependent on any single manufacturer. 

The Board of SIG also seeks to mitigate these risks by looking out for other strategic customers which have a relatively wide range of products that would be able to provide SIG with a constant flow of orders. Although the Board of SIG seeks to mitigate its risks by looking out for other strategic customers, it also strives to strike a balance between the need to minimise its business risks via a larger customer base and the risks arising from its focus on certain major customers to ensure better profitability.


【Brand loyalty 】
The success of a particular brand is mainly dependent on the consumers’ loyalty, and updated fashion and quality associated with the brand name. With Nike’s products being the main product produced by SIG, SIG does not have any control over Nike’s brand loyalty. Nike is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel company worldwide. In the past years, Nike has achieved remarkable growth which reflects its consistent effort and ability to capture and sustain market share. Hence, the risk of brand switching by Nike’s customers is well monitored. If Nike’s reputation and business performance is affected, there can be no assurance that the financial performance of SIG would not be affected. In view of SIG’s capability to develop and produce a wide range of product types ranging from basic to highly technical seam sealed garments, the Board of SIG is confident that it would be able to switch its operations to serve other customers such as Adidas, Fila, Puma and Reebok whom they had working relationships with.


【Future prospects and plans of SIG】 
SIG has been involved in the apparel industry since 1975. With 30 years of experience in this industry, SIG has built a good reputation in the apparel industry and is known among its customers as a reliable and consistent manufacturer of high-quality and sophisticated woven sportswear. With its established presence in the apparel industry and good reputation, SIG has been able to expand its customer base to include the most strategic players such as Nike in the sportswear sector. 

SIG has identified Nike as its main strategic customer as SIG has enjoyed a good working relationship with Nike for more than 20 years and Nike is the largest seller of athletic apparel in the world and a provider of a wide range of product mix. SIG is also one of Nike’s tier-1 woven manufacturers of Nike products worldwide. Being a tier-1 contract manufacturer of Nike, Nike is committed to prioritising the production capacity offered by its tier-1 manufacturers. 

SIG received the “Outstanding Performance Award” from Nike in 2005 at the Nike Supplier Summit Year 2005. The award marked Nike’s recognition of SIG’s performance and is based on consistent achievement of at least 95% on-time delivery, less than 1% quality defect rate and compliance score of grade A for the past 1 year. 

Nike has revenue and cost of sales of USD13.740 billion and USD7.624 billion respectively for the financial year ended 31 May 2005. Nike has targeted to increase its business volume with SIG by approximately 1.5 times by the year 2007. As such, SIG’s future business development with Nike is promising given that SIG places utmost importance on the quality of its products, and SIG’s revenue from Nike is very minimal as compared to the overall business revenue of Nike. The Board of SIG believes that this will bring rapid growth to SIG in terms of business volume and profitability.

To retain Nike’s confidence in its products and to remain as Nike’s tier-1 woven manufacturer, SIG is committed to increase its production efficiencies and capacities, and maintain its quality assurance. 

To cater for the increase in production capacity, SIG plans to increase its manufacturing plants or production lines in Vietnam by entering into new business collaborations with its existing joint venture partner in Vietnam, and to expand its manufacturing facilities to other countries which have a lower cost of production. SIG is also on a constant look-out for other strategic customers which have a relatively wide range of products to provide SIG with a constant flow of orders to mitigate its risk of cyclical sales.

SIG’s persistence and aggressive efforts in cost management, production efficiency and effectiveness, shorter lead time and “lean” management concept have also enhanced SIG’s profitability.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

NIKE & MAGNI 撇不开的关系

MAGNI是NIKE其中一家代工,而NIKE是MAGNI主要客户,Garment segment 占总营业额89% (根据2017年报)。虽然年报里没注明客户是谁,但大家都知道MAGNI的主要客户是NIKE。有鉴于此,NIKE的财务表现也直接对照着MAGNI的财务表现,可说是一面镜子




 过去5年,无论是营业额,营业利润和税后盈利,NIKE和MAGNI的表现几乎一致。2018财政年截至第三季的表现两家公司都出现放缓的迹象。NIKE第三季的税后盈利出现严重下滑主要归咎于刚刚在2017年12月生效的新税法,导致附加税务开销暴增(transition tax on our accumulated foreign earnings and the remeasurement of deferred tax assets and liabilities)。不过这些附加税务属于临时估计(provisional estimate),公司完成评估后将会作出适当的修改。


NIKE garment在欧洲,中东,非洲,中国大陆,亚洲太平洋区和拉丁美洲(除了北美)的销售额均取得双位数增长。

两家公司将会在六月公布第四季财务报告。