Tuesday, June 19, 2018

SCGM 未来如何?

SCGM (7247),国内其中一家有规模的塑料包装生产商(食品,电子,医疗),业务包括国内和出口到国外。国内营业额占总营业额超过60%,这个比例一直在增长当中,可见国内的需求保持强劲,也代表公司在努力扩张国内市场的份额。



在马来西亚,塑料包装生产商不胜枚举,上市和没上市的都有。要在国内的激烈市场中竞争,还得在价格和产品素质方面多下点功夫。

2017财政年股息派发率低于50%,过去3年派发率都高于60%。这也许是公司需要把钱用在扩充厂房方面。

对比2017年报,截至2018财政年第三季,公司现金减少,借贷增加。目前不属于净现金公司。

2014年开始投资SCGM,当时的本益比只有8,股息率有5%。



公司在2017年开始投入大笔资本开销 (CAPEX) 以扩充生产线,花54 million兴建新厂房,把生产量从每年36 million kg 增长至每年62.6 million kg,提高74%。公司上一次扩张生产线是在2009年,把当时的厂房面积从40,000 sq feet 扩张到170,000 sq feet,公司的营业额随后5年大幅度增长。由此可见,接下来5年的业绩非常可期。





新厂房已经在4月底获得入伙准证




由于产能几近饱和,业绩在没有强劲动力的增长下,SCGM 股价从去年3块多高峰后开始往下近60%,历时半年之久,一直到今年4月才回稳。随后在4中和5月中有明显的拉升(价量齐升)后横摆,昨天开始又有一股明显的拉升,亦然是价量齐升的情况。

接下来几个季度的业绩只要无出现严重下跌的情况,相信股价下跌的空间应该不大。至于业绩会不会有惊喜,也就是大幅回升,机会应该不大,毕竟新的生产线还未贡献业绩。当然原料价格回升和人力资源开销上涨等等也是值得关注的元素。



卓越的公司需要卓越的管理层掌托,李氏四兄弟绝对是卓越的公司掌门人

Saturday, June 16, 2018

存股+耐心=?



投资需要耐心,这是不争的事实,也有许多案例足以证明。当然前提是你得投对股,选对的公司产业。

这里就以MAGNI(俗称美女)来做参考。假设你在2013年以RM2292买了1000股的美女,这5年来没有手痒,一股都没卖,牢牢锁在保险箱里。如今你手上美女的价值是多少?

以上的table足以一目了然,这5年来领了84仙的股息,分了一次红股。因为分过红股,手上的股数也从1000股变成1500股。如今你手上的美女每股本钱是78仙((当初透入的资金 - 股息总额)/总股数)

以目前每股5.47计算,你目前1500股的美女价值RM8205,对比当初投入的本金和所领取的股息总数,5年来这笔投资的净回酬是600%。

这就是存股和耐心的威力。

Thursday, June 14, 2018

MAGNI的“精髓”所在- SIP


South Island Garment Sdn Bhd (SIP), a 100% wholly-owned subsidiary of MAGNI.

SIP与NIKE已经合作了33年!(1985-2018)

【Dependence on major customer】
SIG’s current business is largely dependent on the sale of woven sportswear to Nike, Inc. (“Nike”). Sales to Nike accounted for approximately 75% of SIG’s revenue for the financial year ended 30 April 2005. 

SIG has enjoyed a cordial relationship with Nike for the past 20 years since 1985. Being a supplier of Nike apparels, SIG is required to adhere to a strict set of compliance rules known as the “Nike Code of Conduct”. Due to SIG’s emphasis on quality control and successful business ties with Nike, Nike has appointed SIG as one of the tier-1 woven manufacturers of Nike apparels worldwide. To be a Nike tier-1 manufacturer, SIG must maintain a high and consistent performance in its on-time delivery and quality of its apparels. The privilege of being a Nike’s tier-1 manufacturer is that Nike is committed to prioritising the production capacity offered by its tier-1 manufacturers. Although SIG continuously strives to improve its quality assurance, delivery and customer service, there can be no assurance that SIG will continue to have a cordial business relationship with Nike, and that Nike would not remove SIG as a tier-1 woven manufacturer of Nike products. Nike, being a global company, has the flexibility in sourcing for other manufacturers worldwide and is not dependent on any single manufacturer. 

The Board of SIG also seeks to mitigate these risks by looking out for other strategic customers which have a relatively wide range of products that would be able to provide SIG with a constant flow of orders. Although the Board of SIG seeks to mitigate its risks by looking out for other strategic customers, it also strives to strike a balance between the need to minimise its business risks via a larger customer base and the risks arising from its focus on certain major customers to ensure better profitability.


【Brand loyalty 】
The success of a particular brand is mainly dependent on the consumers’ loyalty, and updated fashion and quality associated with the brand name. With Nike’s products being the main product produced by SIG, SIG does not have any control over Nike’s brand loyalty. Nike is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel company worldwide. In the past years, Nike has achieved remarkable growth which reflects its consistent effort and ability to capture and sustain market share. Hence, the risk of brand switching by Nike’s customers is well monitored. If Nike’s reputation and business performance is affected, there can be no assurance that the financial performance of SIG would not be affected. In view of SIG’s capability to develop and produce a wide range of product types ranging from basic to highly technical seam sealed garments, the Board of SIG is confident that it would be able to switch its operations to serve other customers such as Adidas, Fila, Puma and Reebok whom they had working relationships with.


【Future prospects and plans of SIG】 
SIG has been involved in the apparel industry since 1975. With 30 years of experience in this industry, SIG has built a good reputation in the apparel industry and is known among its customers as a reliable and consistent manufacturer of high-quality and sophisticated woven sportswear. With its established presence in the apparel industry and good reputation, SIG has been able to expand its customer base to include the most strategic players such as Nike in the sportswear sector. 

SIG has identified Nike as its main strategic customer as SIG has enjoyed a good working relationship with Nike for more than 20 years and Nike is the largest seller of athletic apparel in the world and a provider of a wide range of product mix. SIG is also one of Nike’s tier-1 woven manufacturers of Nike products worldwide. Being a tier-1 contract manufacturer of Nike, Nike is committed to prioritising the production capacity offered by its tier-1 manufacturers. 

SIG received the “Outstanding Performance Award” from Nike in 2005 at the Nike Supplier Summit Year 2005. The award marked Nike’s recognition of SIG’s performance and is based on consistent achievement of at least 95% on-time delivery, less than 1% quality defect rate and compliance score of grade A for the past 1 year. 

Nike has revenue and cost of sales of USD13.740 billion and USD7.624 billion respectively for the financial year ended 31 May 2005. Nike has targeted to increase its business volume with SIG by approximately 1.5 times by the year 2007. As such, SIG’s future business development with Nike is promising given that SIG places utmost importance on the quality of its products, and SIG’s revenue from Nike is very minimal as compared to the overall business revenue of Nike. The Board of SIG believes that this will bring rapid growth to SIG in terms of business volume and profitability.

To retain Nike’s confidence in its products and to remain as Nike’s tier-1 woven manufacturer, SIG is committed to increase its production efficiencies and capacities, and maintain its quality assurance. 

To cater for the increase in production capacity, SIG plans to increase its manufacturing plants or production lines in Vietnam by entering into new business collaborations with its existing joint venture partner in Vietnam, and to expand its manufacturing facilities to other countries which have a lower cost of production. SIG is also on a constant look-out for other strategic customers which have a relatively wide range of products to provide SIG with a constant flow of orders to mitigate its risk of cyclical sales.

SIG’s persistence and aggressive efforts in cost management, production efficiency and effectiveness, shorter lead time and “lean” management concept have also enhanced SIG’s profitability.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

NIKE & MAGNI 撇不开的关系

MAGNI是NIKE其中一家代工,而NIKE是MAGNI主要客户,Garment segment 占总营业额89% (根据2017年报)。虽然年报里没注明客户是谁,但大家都知道MAGNI的主要客户是NIKE。有鉴于此,NIKE的财务表现也直接对照着MAGNI的财务表现,可说是一面镜子




 过去5年,无论是营业额,营业利润和税后盈利,NIKE和MAGNI的表现几乎一致。2018财政年截至第三季的表现两家公司都出现放缓的迹象。NIKE第三季的税后盈利出现严重下滑主要归咎于刚刚在2017年12月生效的新税法,导致附加税务开销暴增(transition tax on our accumulated foreign earnings and the remeasurement of deferred tax assets and liabilities)。不过这些附加税务属于临时估计(provisional estimate),公司完成评估后将会作出适当的修改。


NIKE garment在欧洲,中东,非洲,中国大陆,亚洲太平洋区和拉丁美洲(除了北美)的销售额均取得双位数增长。

两家公司将会在六月公布第四季财务报告。

Sunday, May 27, 2018

【投资有道】股票投资的迷思,你搞清楚了没?



股灵精探感到非常荣幸有这机会受邀上City Plus FM分享自己对股票投资的见解与看法。这些内容并不代表都适合每个人去应用,也不奢望每个人认同股灵精探的看法。纯粹是个大家互相学习和互相交流的平台。


第一段已经在星期五播出,下一段将会在六月八日播出。欢迎大家互相交流和学习


谢谢

Friday, April 27, 2018

NESTLE 股东大会 2018 (26 Apr 2018)

2013年11月18日贸贸然以69.48的价格买入Nestle,当时并没考虑很多,主要会想买入是因为自己每天都喝milo,就这样很大胆的把它吃下去,以一个散户来说这样的股并不会是首选。一收就是4年多,而今天终于有机会亲自见识了真正所谓的上市公司的股东大会,我,依然是一只小小菜鸟。

奔波了一整天终于可以坐下来把今天的股东大会记录下来,如果今晚不把它打出来恐怕到了明晚已经忘得一干二净了。

今早带着澎湃的心情出席雀巢 NESTLE AGM,8.30am抵达会场(我知道我很kiasu早早就到,照理不需要这么早到那里等)。用身份证注册后就以redemption voucher 去领取早餐和最令人期待的door gift。








这是早餐,至于好吃吗?10分给5分

万众期待的goodie bag里到底有什么?


这袋东西不轻,要在离开吉隆坡之前尽量解决掉



在会场有免费供应3种类型饮料。

新产品:Nestum 芒果+橙 3合1麦片 (喝了一杯)


与小学时期milo车一样味道的冻美禄!爽!(喝了4杯)

Nescafé: Original, Kaw, Zero (喝了4杯)





现场气氛







好多uncle aunty, 青年真的占少数 (老人股)



9.50进入会场



会议开始由集团主席致辞,接着由CEO叙述公司在2017的表现,以及稍微带过2018第一季的成绩。
















重点:雀巢在马来西亚的市占率有15.5%


市占率强过对手这么多?竟然强过F&N和Dlady






NESTLE主要功臣之一: MILO




公开的秘密:CEO说MILO没有secret recipe,虽然没有secret recipe,依然没有对手能完美复制出来。








其他重点:-2018第一季好的开始,CFO对今年的展望表示非常乐观,肯定将会比去年赚更多 (原产品价格下调;马币升值)
-我想问的问题,其中一位股东问了,关于share split/bonus issue,CEO微笑的回答:“目前并没有这计划,虽然管理层内部会议中常有提出”
-继续强打广告
-持续加强E-commerce
-更多新产品推出市场

总结:
Nestle在市场的地位强悍,产品非常多样化。本身有个建议,强化牛奶ready to drink 小包装系列 (Dlady做得很棒)。



Tuesday, April 24, 2018

MILO在你心中的地位

有人发现市场上有这个产品吗? 这是雀巢刚推出不是很久的产品,之前便利条多数局限于3合1 milo,鲜少有kosong款,反而咖啡就有kosong款。对于那些对3合1饮料却步的人士这绝对是个福音,带出门也方便~


我的大女儿从小喝奶粉会要求加milo粉跟奶粉一起冲泡 (当然是3岁后的事,年龄太小不好喝这些附加品),一直到现在6岁只要有冲泡奶粉,milo粉是绝对少不了。

最近小儿子也开始要求加milo粉,甚至跟着你看着你泡,确定有把milo粉加入奶瓶。

也太巧合了吧,怎么两个都对milo粉如此钟情,也许只要看到冲泡出来的奶带有褐色就可以了,不一定是非得milo。

话说回来,还真的是有遇过有人对milo的依赖,没milo简直不行啊!

对我而言,巧克力饮料首选绝对是milo。每个人家里都会有milo是吧?不是milo那就是vico 或ovaltine了。

NESTLE刚刚在傍晚公布了2018年第一季财政报告,没惊吓也无惊喜。Q1也是传统旺季,归功于农历新年效应。



至于股价,似乎在趋稳,有稳固地基的趋势,短期内应该不会有很大的波动,除非综旨成分股的地位受动摇。